In Strategic Modeling Simulations, what are the guidelines for selecting the appropriate probability distribution?

Selecting the appropriate probability distribution in Strategic Modeling Simulations is crucial for accurately representing the uncertainties in various inputs. The correct approach is to choose a distribution that aligns closely with the characteristics and conditions of the input variables. This ensures that the simulations properly reflect the underlying real-world phenomena and uncertainties.

For instance, if you know that a particular input, such as sales revenue, tends to follow a normal distribution due to historical data analysis, it makes sense to select a normal distribution for that input in the simulation. On the other hand, if another input might exhibit characteristics of a skewed distribution due to external factors, choosing a distribution that captures this skew will enhance the reliability of the simulation results.

By matching distribution conditions to input characteristics, the model can provide more accurate predictions and insights, leading to better strategic decision-making. This method emphasizes the importance of grounding distribution choices in empirical data and analysis rather than randomness or generic assumptions.